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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers rising together. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still