From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.

Timothy Haas
Timothy Haas

A seasoned casino analyst with over a decade of experience in slot machine mechanics and gaming strategies, passionate about helping players improve their odds.