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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "serious ramifications" last August if Vladimir Putin carried on hindering truce negotiations, he eventually enacted major penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

However, through his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or European input, the former president has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in peril. Although ringing statements that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the plan effectively weaken that same independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business past, Trump seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious intention to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's increasing dictatorship denies them.

Border Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would require the nation to give up all of this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a essential barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, providing Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he subsequently opt to resume the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a step that would make renewed hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to cut the size of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, the proposal imposes no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate administration as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Every radical doctrine and practices must be rejected and forbidden." As if to highlight this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the plan has Russia pledge not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent agreements in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of captured areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should anyone believe this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the proposal promises a "strong joint armed reaction" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics include fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just block the nation accession to NATO but also prevent member states from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the security presence, presumptively headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another parallel deal according to sources would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "major, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. But in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best protection against future Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of alliance members, like the US administration, to react with force to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not