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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.