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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.