Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
